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Prediction for CME (2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-01T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28924/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-03T15:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28927/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=27.0, Speed=920.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-02-01T11:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-03T15:41Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =20.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-05T03:39Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-03T10:25Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-03T16:01Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240201_114800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 60.62 hour(s)
Difference: 10.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-02-01T13:58Z

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